Serfling Curve

Serfling Curve

To demonstrate that influenza epidemics could be measured with data, CDC's Alexander Langmuir compared the number of deaths in the U.S. with those that occurred in England and Wales, using the expectancy curve calculated by CDC statistician Robert S. Serfling in 1963. Serfling constructed standard curves of expected seasonal mortality to create an early quantitative measure of influenza severity and localization. Using this formula, Serfling was able to create charts and graphs that reflected what one community could expect for influenza seasonal mortality.

David J. Sencer CDC Museum Archives